Fed cattle

Negotiated cash trade, packer margin and price discovery · USDA AMS · week to Wed, Aug 19

National negotiated cash

Week to Aug 17
Live, national average
$228.00
7.79 vs last week
27,633 head
Dressed, national average
$365.17
5.70 vs last week
22,559 head
Cash head, this week
50,576
54,033 vs last week
Week ago 104,609
Cash share Derived
17.1%
of all committed cattle
The rest is priced off this trade
USDA's national weekly negotiated average, domestic cattle only. Live and dressed are never averaged together.
What is in this average, and what is kept out

Imported cattle are reported in the same series and never enter a US average. Live and dressed are kept apart; they are different weight bases and cannot be averaged together.

Steers and heifers, FOB and delivered combined — USDA also publishes the steer, heifer and mixed splits of this same total, which are not added back in. Dairy-bred cattle are reported separately and excluded.

What each pricing method paid

Weekly · through Aug 17
Three quarters of fed cattle are priced off the negotiated cash trade rather than in it. This is what each method actually paid, week by week.
Mon Aug 16, 2021Mon Aug 17, 2026 · 262 weeks · $/cwt live
Formula +$9.51 now+$50−$50Negotiated grid +$18.58 now+$50−$50Forward contract +$0.73 now+$50−$50202120222023202420252026
One method per row, each drawn against its own cash line. Shaded green above where that method paid more than the open cash market and red below where it paid less. All three rows share one scale, so their depths compare directly. Lines are a 13-week average — week to week these spreads swing far enough to hide the standing relationship, which is the thing worth seeing. The window starts where the first spread can be calculated, not where cash begins. Negotiated cash is USDA's national weekly weighted average for domestic steers and heifers. Formula, negotiated grid and forward contract are net prices beginning August 2018. Live and dressed are different weight bases and are never compared to each other.

Price discovery

Week to Aug 17
50,576
head traded in the open cash market last week — setting the price that roughly 4.8× that many committed cattle are paid off.

The pool has been shrinking for a decade. Negotiated cash averaged 106,378 head a week in 2017 against 67,406 in 2025 — down 37%, and lower than the year before it in 5 of 8 years.

The fewer cattle that change hands in the open, the fewer head the price everyone else is paid rests on.

How the decline is measured

Only full calendar years are compared, so neither end is a part-year. This is not a week-to-week wobble, and it is not a trading signal either — it is the base the whole market is priced from.

How the cattle movedHeadShareSets the price?
Negotiated cash50,57617.1%Yes — this is the market
Formula189,06563.9%No — priced off the cash trade
Negotiated grid35,56312.0%Base priced off the cash trade
Forward contract20,6197.0%No — committed in advance
Cash head, this week
50,576
54,033 vs last week
Week ago 104,609
Versus a year ago
14.3%
59,039 head a year ago
Fewer cattle discovering the price than a year ago
Cash share Derived
17.1%
of all committed cattle
Cash ÷ (cash + formula + grid + forward)
Committed, not discovered
245,247
formula + grid + forward
Paid off a price they had no part in setting
Weekly cash head since 2016513 weeks · one week is a snapshot, this is the trend
Mon Aug 16, 2021Mon Aug 17, 2026 · 262 weeks
050k100k150k202120222023202420252026
Weekly52-week average
USDA's own reporter, this week USDA

Prices were generally weaker as the week progressed. In Kansas, negotiated cash trade was light on moderate demand Friday. For the week in Kansas, live purchases were 7.00 lower at 228.00. In Nebraska, negotiated cash trade was light to moderate on moderate demand Wednesday, moderate on moderate to good demand Thursday, and light on moderate demand Friday. For the week in Nebraska, live purchases were 5.00-10.00 lower ranging from 225.00-230.00 and dressed purchases were 2.00-8.00 lower ranging from 362.00-368.00. In the Western Cornbelt, negotiated cash trade was limited on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday while trade was moderate on moderate to good demand Thursday. For the week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases were steady to 5.00-7.00 lower ranging from 223.00-232.00, mostly 228.00-230.00, and dressed purchases were 2.00-8.00 lower, from mostly 362.00-368.00, with a few isolated purchases at 380.00 earlier in the week.

Formula and grid cattle are paid off the negotiated cash price. When the cash pool shrinks, the price that everyone is paid rests on fewer and fewer head. These are USDA's reported volumes; the share is ours.

Where the cash market went quiet

Negotiated cash head · last 10 reporting days
Every cell is head of cattle bought in the open cash market that day. A dash means USDA published nothing.
RegionAug 6Aug 7Aug 10Aug 11Aug 12Aug 13Aug 14Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19Days with no trade
TX-OK-NM10 of 10
Kansas3,611701561176 of 10
Nebraska14,7383,6173,21110,2672,8301,4292,4303 of 10
Iowa-Minnesota3,5597296513,7999393801,5793 of 10
No cash trade published at all
TX-OK-NM
Not one head of negotiated cash trade published in this region across the last 10 reporting days.
A blank is a fact, not a gap. USDA withholds a price when too few packers bought for it to be published safely. 22 of 40 cells here are blank.
Why a day is blank

Packers are required to report under Livestock Mandatory Reporting — a blank is not a packer skipping paperwork, and not a gap on our side. USDA publishes nothing when either no cash trade happened at all, or so few packers bought that printing the number would identify one of them: it withholds when fewer than three buyers report, or when one buyer accounts for more than 70% of the volume.

A region that stays blank week after week is telling you either that packers have stopped bidding in the open market, or that too few of them are bidding for the price to be published safely.

Packer margin Derived

Per head · Aug 19
Today
$410
Beef revenue + drop credit − cattle cost
Best in 84 days
$410
Worst in 84 days
−$169
Days underwater
18 of 84
Margin below zero
Drop credit USDA
$14.32
0.04 since it last moved
per cwt live · $22.73 dressed · Aug 19
-2000+200+400BREAK-EVEN$410AprMayJunJulAug
Shown in both directions, including the weeks packers lose money.
What is plotted, and what drop credit is

Only days where every input reported are plotted — a missing drop credit reads roughly $160 a head too low and would overstate the case.

Drop credit is the hide, offal and everything off the carcass that is not beef. USDA prices it daily per 100 lb of live weight; it moves about once a week, so the change above is measured against the last reading that differed, and the figure shown is USDA-final.

Negotiated cash trade

Week to date · Aug 13Wed, Aug 19
RegionTradePriceAvg wtHeadDays traded
Iowa-MinnesotaDressed Delivered$361.961,0022,7053
Iowa-MinnesotaLive Delivered$230.581,418261
Iowa-MinnesotaLive FOB$226.341,4933,9664
KansasDressed Delivered$360.008831561
KansasLive FOB$228.001,5511171
NebraskaDressed Delivered$361.1997310,3614
NebraskaDressed FOB$360.269931,2853
NebraskaLive FOB$227.951,5085,3103
23,926 head in all. Colorado is published weekly rather than daily, so it is not in this table.
What is in these averages

All beef type, total all grades, weighted by head across the week. Fed cattle trade on a weekly rhythm, so a single day is rarely the market. Grid and formula volume is reported separately and is never blended into these averages.

Daily reporting covers Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa-Minnesota.

What they buy for, what they sell for

Cutout Aug 19
Choice cutout — the sell side$394.99/cwt
Dressed cash — the buy side 14,507 hd this week$361.24/cwt
Gross spread Derived+33.75/cwt
Both figures are dressed-weight, so they compare directly. The gross spread is before kill costs and the drop credit — the packer margin above is the net number.

Carcass weights and slaughter

Week ending Aug 15
Dressed weight885 lb 15 lb since May 15
Live weight1,438 lb 30 lb since May 15
Federally inspected slaughter, that week517,000 hd
Slaughter, week to date309,000 LY 334,007 · 25,007
Carcass weight is the beef side of supply: the same cattle yield more or less beef as weights move.
What the change is measured against

The oldest week USDA's weekly series currently holds (May 15, 14 weeks of data) — not a year-ago figure, which this weekly series does not reach back far enough to give.

Cattle on Feed

Monthly · NASS
Placements, marketings and on-feed inventory — with every NASS revision tracked — live on their own page.
Go to Cattle on Feed →