Fed cattle

Negotiated cash trade, packer margin and price discovery · USDA AMS · week to Fri, Oct 16

National negotiated cash

Week to Oct 19
Live, national average
$224.66
▲ 3.46 vs last week
60,150 head
Dressed, national average
$351.75
▲ 6.14 vs last week
29,417 head
Cash head, this week
90,762
▲ 23,061 vs last week
Week ago 67,701
Cash share Derived
25.6%
of all committed cattle
The rest is priced off this trade
USDA's national weekly negotiated average, domestic cattle only. Live and dressed are never averaged together.
What is in this average, and what is kept out

Imported cattle are reported in the same series and never enter a US average. Live and dressed are kept apart; they are different weight bases and cannot be averaged together.

Steers and heifers, FOB and delivered combined — USDA also publishes the steer, heifer and mixed splits of this same total, which are not added back in. Dairy-bred cattle are reported separately and excluded.

What each pricing method paid

Weekly · through Oct 19
Three quarters of fed cattle are priced off the negotiated cash trade rather than in it. This is what each method actually paid, week by week.
Mon Oct 18, 2021 – Mon Oct 19, 2026 · 262 weeks · $/cwt live
Formula +$4.77 now+$50−$50Negotiated grid +$11.10 now+$50−$50Forward contract +$6.61 now+$50−$5020212023202420252026
One method per row, each drawn against its own cash line. Shaded green above where that method paid more than the open cash market and red below where it paid less. All three rows share one scale, so their depths compare directly. Lines are a 13-week average — week to week these spreads swing far enough to hide the standing relationship, which is the thing worth seeing. The window starts where the first spread can be calculated, not where cash begins. Negotiated cash is USDA's national weekly weighted average for domestic steers and heifers. Formula, negotiated grid and forward contract are net prices beginning August 2018. Live and dressed are different weight bases and are never compared to each other.

Price discovery

Week to Oct 19
90,762
head traded in the open cash market last week — setting the price that roughly 2.9× that many committed cattle are paid off.

The pool has been shrinking for a decade. Negotiated cash averaged 106,378 head a week in 2017 against 67,406 in 2025 — down 37%, and lower than the year before it in 5 of 8 years.

The fewer cattle that change hands in the open, the fewer head the price everyone else is paid rests on.

How the decline is measured

Only full calendar years are compared, so neither end is a part-year. This is not a week-to-week wobble, and it is not a trading signal either — it is the base the whole market is priced from.

How the cattle movedHeadShareSets the price?
Negotiated cash90,76225.6%Yes — this is the market
Formula223,97663.2%No — priced off the cash trade
Negotiated grid27,5827.8%Base priced off the cash trade
Forward contract12,2263.4%No — committed in advance
Cash head, this week
90,762
▲ 23,061 vs last week
Week ago 67,701
Versus a year ago
+3.3%
87,831 head a year ago
More cattle discovering the price than a year ago
Cash share Derived
25.6%
of all committed cattle
Cash ÷ (cash + formula + grid + forward)
Committed, not discovered
263,784
formula + grid + forward
Paid off a price they had no part in setting
Weekly cash head since 2016522 weeks · one week is a snapshot, this is the trend
Mon Oct 18, 2021 – Mon Oct 19, 2026 · 262 weeks
050k100k150k202120222023202420252026
Weekly52-week average
USDA's own reporter, this week USDA

In Nebraska, negotiated cash trade was limited on moderate demand Thursday and active on very good demand Friday. For the week, live purchases were 3.00-5.00 higher from 225.00-227.00, and dressed purchases were 5.00-10.00 higher from 350.00-355.00. In the Western Cornbelt, negotiated cash trade was moderate on moderate to good demand Thursday and active on very good demand Friday. For the week, live purchases were 4.00 higher from 220.00-225.00, mostly 224.00, and dressed purchases were 5.00-10.00 higher at mostly 350.00-355.00.

Formula and grid cattle are paid off the negotiated cash price. When the cash pool shrinks, the price that everyone is paid rests on fewer and fewer head. These are USDA's reported volumes; the share is ours.

Where the cash market went quiet

Negotiated cash head · last 10 reporting days
Every cell is head of cattle bought in the open cash market that day. A dash means USDA published nothing.
RegionOct 9Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Days with no trade
TX-OK-NM——————————10 of 10
Kansas——————————10 of 10
Nebraska5,114———57114,341————7 of 10
Iowa-Minnesota2,848———1,7098,132————7 of 10
No cash trade published at all
TX-OK-NM · Kansas
Not one head of negotiated cash trade published in these regions across the last 10 reporting days.
A blank is a fact, not a gap. USDA withholds a price when too few packers bought for it to be published safely. 34 of 40 cells here are blank.
Why a day is blank

Packers are required to report under Livestock Mandatory Reporting — a blank is not a packer skipping paperwork, and not a gap on our side. USDA publishes nothing when either no cash trade happened at all, or so few packers bought that printing the number would identify one of them: it withholds when fewer than three buyers report, or when one buyer accounts for more than 70% of the volume.

A region that stays blank week after week is telling you either that packers have stopped bidding in the open market, or that too few of them are bidding for the price to be published safely.

Packer margin Derived

Per head · Oct 22
Today
$336
Beef revenue + drop credit − cattle cost
Best in 84 days
$453
Worst in 84 days
−$169
Days underwater
18 of 84
Margin below zero
Drop credit USDA
$15.09
▲ 0.01 since it last moved
per cwt live · $23.95 dressed · Oct 22
-2000+200+400BREAK-EVEN$336JunJulAugSepOct
Shown in both directions, including the weeks packers lose money.
What is plotted, and what drop credit is

Only days where every input reported are plotted — a missing drop credit reads roughly $160 a head too low and would overstate the case.

Drop credit is the hide, offal and everything off the carcass that is not beef. USDA prices it daily per 100 lb of live weight; it moves about once a week, so the change above is measured against the last reading that differed, and the figure shown is USDA-final.

Negotiated cash trade

Week to date · Oct 10 – Fri, Oct 16
RegionTradePriceAvg wtHeadDays traded
Iowa-MinnesotaDressed Delivered$353.401,0193,2312
Iowa-MinnesotaDressed FOB$350.849246792
Iowa-MinnesotaLive Delivered$225.481,487731
Iowa-MinnesotaLive FOB$223.031,5485,8582
NebraskaDressed Delivered$351.239859,4842
NebraskaDressed FOB$354.001,0096391
NebraskaLive FOB$225.011,5804,7891
24,753 head in all. Colorado is published weekly rather than daily, so it is not in this table.
What is in these averages

All beef type, total all grades, weighted by head across the week. Fed cattle trade on a weekly rhythm, so a single day is rarely the market. Grid and formula volume is reported separately and is never blended into these averages.

Daily reporting covers Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa-Minnesota.

What they buy for, what they sell for

Cutout Oct 22
Choice cutout — the sell side$369.47/cwt
Dressed cash — the buy side 14,033 hd this week$351.84/cwt
Gross spread Derived+17.63/cwt
Both figures are dressed-weight, so they compare directly. The gross spread is before kill costs and the drop credit — the packer margin above is the net number.

Carcass weights and slaughter

Week ending Oct 17
Dressed weight892 lb −8 lb since May 15
Live weight1,454 lb −14 lb since May 15
Federally inspected slaughter, that week553,000 hd
Slaughter, week to date430,000 LY 447,054 · −17,054
Carcass weight is the beef side of supply: the same cattle yield more or less beef as weights move.
What the change is measured against

The oldest week USDA's weekly series currently holds (May 15, 23 weeks of data) — not a year-ago figure, which this weekly series does not reach back far enough to give.

Cattle on Feed

Monthly · NASS
Placements, marketings and on-feed inventory — with every NASS revision tracked — live on their own page.
Go to Cattle on Feed →